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Published ahead of print on March 27, 2003, doi:10.1164/rccm.200210-1231OC

Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med., Volume 168, Number 1, July 2003, 49-53

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Submitted on October 28, 2002
Accepted on March 24, 2003

Effectiveness of Inhaled Corticosteroids in COPD: Immortal Time Bias in Observational Studies

Samy Suissa1*

1 Division of Clinical Epidemiology, McGill University Health Centre, Royal Victoria Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: samy.suissa{at}clinepi.mcgill.ca.

Recent large-scale cohort studies that reported an important reduction in mortality and COPD morbidity with inhaled corticosteroids may be biased. We used a population-based cohort of Saskatchewan residents 55 years of age or over, first hospitalised for COPD during 1990-97, to study this potential bias. These 979 subjects were followed for a year from discharge until their first readmission for COPD or death (389 subjects). Inhaled corticosteroid exposure was any dispensing within 90 days after discharge. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to compare the time-fixed analysis employed in the recent studies with an alternative time-dependent analysis. The time-fixed adjusted rate ratio was 0.69 (95% Cl: 0.55-0.86) for inhaled corticosteroid use within 90 days while the time-dependent rate ratio was 1.00 (95% Cl: 0.79-1.26). With the time-fixed analysis, the rate ratios were affected by the choice of the exposure period, decreasing from 0.98 for a 15-day exposure period to 0.51 for 365 days, but remained stable between 1.06 and 0.94 with the time-dependent analysis. Inhaled corticosteroid use after hospitalisation for COPD was not found to reduce mortality and morbidity. Recent observational reports of reductions in mortality and morbidity with inhaled corticosteroids are biased by their inappropriate allocation of exposure and immortal time.


Key words: COHORT STUDIES; DATABASE STUDIES; METHODS; CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE; TREATMENT;




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