Published ahead of print on November 5, 2004, doi:10.1164/rccm.200403-324OC
© 2005 American Thoracic Society doi: 10.1164/rccm.200403-324OC
Systemic Inflammatory Response and Progression to Severe Sepsis in Critically Ill Infected PatientsClinical Epidemiology Unit, Hôpital Robert Debré; Department of Medical Biostatistics, Hôpital Saint-Louis; and Medical Intensive Care Unit, Hôpital Saint-Louis, Assistance PubliqueHôpitaux de Paris, Université Paris VII, Paris; and Medical Intensive Care Unit, Hôpital Henri-Mondor, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Université Paris XII, Créteil, France; Istituto di Anestesiologia e Rianimazione, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Policlinico A. Gemelli, Rome, Italy; General Intensive Care Unit, Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israël; Critical Care-Trauma Centre, London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada; Intensive Care Unit, Santo Antonio dos Capuchos Hospital, Lisboa, Portugal; Intensive Care Unit, Parc Tauli Hospital, Red Gina, Spain; Intensive Care Unit, Charing Cross Hospital, London, United Kingdom; and Universitatsklinik und Poliklinik fur Innere Medizin III, Klinikum Krollwitz der Martin-Luther-Universitat Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany Correspondence and requests for reprints should be addressed to Dr Christian Brun-Buisson, Service de Réanimation Médicale, Hôpital Henri Mondor, 94000 Créteil, France. Email: christian.brun-buisson{at}hmn.ap-hop-paris.fr
Rationale: The systemic inflammatory response syndrome has low specificity to identify infected patients at risk of worsening to severe sepsis or shock. Objective: To examine the incidence of and risk factors for worsening sepsis in infected patients. Methods: A 1-year inception cohort study in 28 intensive care units of patients (n = 1,531) having a first episode of infection on admission or during the stay. Measurements and main results: The cumulative incidence of progression to severe sepsis or shock was 20% and 24% at Days 10 and 30, respectively. Variables independently associated (hazard ratio [HR]) with worsening sepsis included: temperature higher than 38.2°C (1.6), heart rate greater than 120/minute (1.3), systolic blood pressure higher than 110 mm Hg (1.5), platelets higher than 150 x 109/L (1.5), serum sodium higher than 145 mmol/L (1.5), bilirubin higher than 30 µmol/L (1.3), mechanical ventilation (1.5), and five variables characterizing infection (pneumonia [HR 1.5], peritonitis [1.5], primary bacteremia [1.8], and infection with gram-positive cocci [1.3] or aerobic gram-negative bacilli [1.4]). The 12 weighted variables were included in a score (Risk of Infection to Severe Sepsis and Shock Score, range 049), summarized in four classes of "low" (score 08) and "moderate" (8.516) risk (9% and 17% probability of worsening, respectively), and of "high" (16.524) and "very high" (score > 24) risk (31% and 55% probability, respectively). Conclusions: One of four patients presenting with infection/sepsis worsen to severe sepsis or shock. A score estimating this risk, using objectively defined criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome, could be used by physicians to stratify patients for clinical management and to test new interventions.
Key Words: infection, intensive care units, multivariable models, risk prediction, sepsis, septic shock Sepsis is a common and complex entity, with marked heterogeneity of patients affected and wide variations in outcome (1, 2). For more than 10 years, the severity of sepsis has been graded, according to the American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine (ACCP/SCCM) classification (3), in three groups of increasing severity (i.e., sepsis, the combination of infection and a systemic inflammatory response, or SIRS), severe sepsis, and septic shock, which are viewed as a continuum of risk (4). Although somewhat subjective, this classification has been useful in epidemiologic studies or clinical trials, even if criteria defining groups have been slightly modified across studies (5, 6). One of the main purposes of identifying SIRS and sepsisthe lower severity groupamong the different stages of the systemic response to infection is to help identify patients at risk of progression to a more severe stage, for early therapeutic intervention, and possible enrolment into clinical trials of new therapies (3). However, the original criteria used to define SIRS were broad, limited in number, and subjectively determined. The definition has therefore been much criticized for its poor specificity and lack of prognostic significance (79), and refined and more comprehensive definitions are awaited (7, 10). In this study, we used the European Sepsis Database (9, 11) to estimate the probability of progression from the early stage of sepsis to a more severe one during the intensive care unit (ICU) stay, considering mortality without progression and ICU discharge as competing risks and examine the influence of comorbidities, physiologic disturbances, and infection characteristics on the risk of progression from infection and sepsis to severe sepsis or septic shock. We thus objectively selected variables and their respective cutoffs for inclusion into a revised definition of the SIRS, and developed a score of risk for worsening sepsis (the Risk of Infection to Severe Sepsis and Shock Score, or RISSC). The use of such a score could help stratify patients in epidemiologic studies and clinical trials of early sepsis. Some of these results have been presented previously in abstract form (12).
Patients This prospective cohort study was conducted over a 1-year period in 28 ICUs of eight countries from Europe, Canada, and Israel (11). All adult patients (age 18 years) consecutively admitted in the participating ICUs during a 1-year period (May 1, 1997, to April 30, 1998) were enrolled. For the analyses presented herein, we selected patients having a first infectious episode occurring either on ICU admission or during ICU stay. Infected patients were categorized by the investigators according to one of the three sepsis stages on the first day of diagnosis of infection (3). In a previous study, we found that patients presenting with a first episode of infection at ICU admission or during ICU stay had a similar outcome (9). Similarly, outcome did not differ between patients having infection with (i.e., sepsis group) or without (i.e., infection only) the usual criteria defining SIRS, in the absence of severe sepsis or shock. Therefore, in the present study, all patients with a first episode of infection independently of its time of occurrence were analyzed together. In addition, patients having infection with or without SIRS and no severe sepsis were grouped under the category of "infection/sepsis."
Data Collection and Definitions
Statistical Analysis
Incidence Estimates of Sepsis Progression
Risk Factors for Progression of Sepsis and Development of the RISSC
Study Population Of the 14,364 patients admitted to the 28 ICUs during the study period, 459 (3.2%) were excluded because of missing information or incomplete follow-up, and 3,443 patients with a first episode of infection occurring on admission (n = 2,688) or during ICU stay (n = 755) remained in the cohort analyzed (Figure 1). There were 1,531 (44.5%) patients presenting with infection/sepsis, 795 (23.1%) with severe sepsis, and 1,117 (32.4%) with septic shock. Their median (quartiles) age was 63 (4373) years and their Simplified Acute Physiology Score II on ICU admission was 42 (3255). The overall crude ICU and hospital mortality of the 3,443 patients with infection was 34% (n = 1,178) and 41% (n = 1,402), respectively. According to the sepsis stage at presentation of infection, the hospital mortality rate was 26% in the infection/sepsis group, 42% in the severe sepsis group, and 61% in the septic shock group.
From Infection to Severe Sepsis or Septic Shock: Incidence and Mortality The clinical characteristics of the 1,531 patients initially presenting with infection/sepsis are shown in Table E1 (see online supplement), which also compares patients worsening to those having died without worsening from sepsis to severe sepsis. A total of 167 patients (11%) developed severe sepsis and 201 (13%) developed septic shock before ICU discharge or Day 30, whereas 1,163 did not worsen within the 30-day follow-up period (Figure 2). The cumulative probability of severe sepsis or shock, accounting for the competitive risks of death or survival to ICU discharge before 30 days, is shown in Figure 3. At Day 28, the probability estimate of progression (24.2%) approximately equates the sum of crude incidences of severe sepsis or shock. Hospital mortality ranged from 17 to 26% for patients presenting with infection/sepsis and not worsening, or returning to the former stage after experiencing a more severe one, whereas those patients evolving to severe sepsis or shock and not returning to a former stage had a mortality ranging from 47 to 97% (Figure 2).
From Infection to Severe Sepsis or Septic Shock: Risk Factors In bivariate analyses (Table 1), we found that liver cirrhosis was the only comorbidity favoring the progression from infection to severe sepsis. In addition to all the original SIRS criteria, other physiologic variables (with corresponding threshold defined by spline analysis) were found associated with progressionsystolic arterial blood pressure (< 110 mm Hg), platelet count (< 150 x 109/L), serum sodium (> 145 mmol/L), bilirubin (> 30 µmol/L), and blood urea (> 15 mmol/L). For variables included in the original SIRS criteria, the cutpoints were defined as follows: a temperature greater than 38.2°C, a heart rate higher than 120/minute, and blood leukocyte count lower than 4.0 x 109/L. Among infection characteristics, pneumonia, peritonitis, primary bacteremia, and infection caused by gram-positive cocci or aerobic gram-negative bacilli were also identified as risk factors for worsening sepsis.
Twelve variables were retained in the final multivariable model (Table 2), including six physiologic variables (temperature, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, platelet count, serum sodium, and bilirubin), as well as mechanical ventilation (used in place of respiratory rate in patients on a ventilator), three infection sites (pneumonia, peritonitis, and primary bacteremia) and two categories of microorganisms (gram-positive cocci and aerobic gram-negative bacilli).
The RISSC for Progression From Infection to Severe Sepsis The score derived from the regression coefficient of each variable retained in the final model ranges from 0 to 49, with highest weights attributed to hyperthermia, primary bacteremia, and mechanical ventilation. In the bootstrap analyses, the median weight attributed to each variable was close to that of the original model (Table 2). In our cohort of 1,531 patients with infection/sepsis, the score ranged from 0 to 38, with a mean (± SD) value of 15 (± 7). Figure 4 shows the prevalence of the eight four-point classes of the score in this population, obtained after merging the subgroups with a score greater than 28, and the corresponding proportion of patients worsening to severe sepsis. The cumulative incidences of progression to severe sepsis in these eight subgroups are shown in Figure E1. To simplify the score for clinical use, this information was summarized in four risk strata (Figure 5): the "low" (score 08) and "moderate" (score 8.516) risk groups, for which the cumulative estimated risk of progression to severe sepsis was 9% and 17%, and the "high" (score 16.524) and "very high" risk (score > 24) groups, associated with a risk of progression to severe sepsis of 31% and 55%, respectively (Table 3). Corresponding curves for various subgroups of patients are shown in the online supplement.
A major purpose of introducing the definition for SIRS was to help early identification of infected patients at risk of worsening (3). In this study, we analyzed the rate and risk for progression of patients with infection or sepsis to the more severe stages of severe sepsis or shock, and reexamined the predictive value of the SIRS criteria in this regard. We thus refined and complemented these criteria to select a set of variables associated with the risk of sepsis progression, which were then used to develop a score (the RISSC). The score includes 12 objectively defined variables characterizing infection and associated physiologic disturbances. This score should help physicians caring for critically ill patients to stratify infected patients according to their probability of worsening at initial presentation and identify high-risk patients potentially justifying more aggressive and early intervention as well as for the design of clinical trials of new therapeutic approaches in sepsis. Only Rangel-Frausto and colleagues (4, 23) previously analyzed the rate of progression from infection and sepsis to severe sepsis and septic shock. In this study, we provide incidence estimates of these progressions in patients from a large database of European ICUs (9, 11) using appropriate statistical modeling, accounting for death without progression and ICU discharge as competing events (15, 17).
Incidence of Sepsis Progression
The Grading and Progression of Sepsis and its Impact on Mortality
Development of the Risk Score Based on objective selection of variables and definition of cut-points, we developed a new set of variables and a score (RISSC) to estimate the risk of worsening sepsis in critically ill patients with infection. Twelve variables were retained in the final multivariable model (Table 2), including six physiologic variables. In addition to three of the four variables (temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate or mechanical ventilation) included in the original SIRS definition, three others were included (platelet count, serum sodium, bilirubin). The spline analyses allowed to define the predictive cutpoints for temperature (> 38.2°C), heart rate (> 120/minute), and leukocyte count (< 4.0 x 109/L) more accurately than in the original SIRS definition. Interestingly, the cutoff for heart rate we found associated with sepsis progression was higher (120/minute) than that empirically selected by the ACCP/SCCM conference (90/minute). Conversely, a relatively high cutoff was determined for systolic blood pressure (110 mm Hg), suggesting that patients having a marginally low blood pressure in the context of infection might need close monitoring. Of note, leukocytosis was not retained in the final model. Mechanical ventilation at onset of sepsis had a strong weight, and tachypnea did not remain in the model after adjusting for the former. Major comorbidities had little influence on sepsis progression (Table 1). Only liver cirrhosis was associated with progression of sepsis, but this variable was not retained in the final model. We also examined whether having one or more comorbidity influenced the risk of sepsis progression, but this was not the case (data shown in the online supplement). Comorbidities therefore appear more strongly associated with the risk of (late) mortality in sepsis (25, 36, 37) probably though interaction between preexisting organ failures and sepsis-related organ dysfunction characterizing severe sepsis, rather than with the risk of early progression from infection to severe sepsis (see online supplement for complementary analyses of comorbidities and expanded discussion). The RISSC also includes five variables related to infection characteristics. Among these, two can be easily obtained from the initial evaluation of the patient (pneumonia and peritonitis), whereas the three others require simple microbiological documentation (bacteremia, gram-positive cocci, and aerobic gram-negative infection). A simplified score, omitting these variables, can, be developed, however. Using this approach, we found that the number of points attributed to the other variables did not change (data shown in the online supplement, Table E3). For routine clinical risk stratification of patients, we first split the score in eight four-point classes, subsequently simplified into four subclasses of risk (Table 3). This classification provided a risk estimate for progression varying from 9% and 17% in the "low" and "moderate" risk classes, to 31% and 55% in the two higher risk classes. Depending on the context and objectives, physicians/investigators may wish to select or exclude patients at low risk or at higher risk. The strengths of our study include its prospective design and conduct on a relatively large number of unselected patients with infection or sepsis from 28 ICUs in academic centers in several countries. These features favor the applicability of our findings to routine clinical practice. However, our study has potential limitations. We used bootstrapping analysis rather than a split-sample approach to confirm the weight attributed to each variable and assess the internal validity of our model, because the latter approach results in less accurate estimates of the internal validity compared with bootstrap (38). In the split-sample approach, the performance of the model is underestimated because only one part (usually one-third) is used to construct the model, and the other for validation; thus, the estimate can be unstable. In contrast, with regular bootstrapping, the model is constructed and validated in datasets with 100% of the patients (20, 21, 38). In addition, we tested the validity of the score in various subgroups of patients (see online supplement). Nevertheless, it would be useful to validate our score on an external database of critically ill infected patients. The ability of the score to fulfill its objectives also needs to be confirmed in clinical practice. Although we used objective methods to select variables and define their cutoff, not all variables that might be considered for inclusion into a risk score of sepsis progression were considered in our analysis (33, 34). For example, we had no information on acute-phase proteins (e.g., procalcitonin, C-reactive protein) or on cytokines levels in our population. There is also increasing evidence that the patients' genetic predisposition is an important contributor to the presentation and outcome of severe infections (39), which might account in part for the heterogeneity of septic patients. Incorporating such variables into a sepsis risk score is of potential importance and might be feasible in a not-too-distant future (33, 34). To summarize, we found that approximately one-fourth of our patients with infection or sepsis evolve to a more severe stage. A larger number of variables than previously incorporated in the SIRS definition, including physiologic measures and characteristics of infection, were objectively identified as associated with the risk of progression from infection to severe sepsis or shock. These variables can be incorporated into a score to stratify patients according to the estimated probability of worsening sepsis, at time of diagnosis of infection.
Participants to the European Sepsis Study are listed in the Appendix (see online supplement).
Funded in part by unrestricted grants from Roche laboratories and Glaxo-Smith-Kline. This article has an online supplement, which is accessible from this issue's table of contents at www.atsjournals.org Conflict of Interest Statement: C.A. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; C.B-B. has participated as a speaker at scientific meetings organized by pharmaceutical companies (Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline) and received grants for participating in multicenter trials sponsored by Arrow, Lilly and Pfizer; S.C. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; M.A. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; S.V.G. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; C.M. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; R.M. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; A.R.O. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; M.P. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; K.W. does not have a financial relationship with a commercial entity that has an interest in the subject of this manuscript; J.R.L.G. has received grants from Roche ($100,000) and from GlaxoSmithKline ($50,000) to fund the European Sepsis Database. Received in original form March 11, 2004; accepted in final form October 31, 2004
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